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Weather Alert

Weather Alert

STATEMENT TEXT

...Cold air funnels will be possible...

Cold air funnels are expected today. These cold air funnels are
developing underneath a few showers that are moving across the
area. Underneath these showers...spinning columns of air that look
like tornadoes may continue to develop. These funnels usually are
very brief and rarely touch the ground. If these funnels do touch
down...they most likely will not cause damage to life or
property.

Cold air funnels are due to very cool air aloft...warm moist air
near the ground...and are usually in association with a strong
area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Due to
little or no wind shear...they are usually weak and very brief.

Today is a day to remain weather aware

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Severe weather outlook

WSIL(Carterville, Ill.) -- This morning, most of us are seeing partly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures as you are headed out the door are on the warmside, mostly running in the mid 50s to low 60s. For the afternoon, you can expect to see clouds clear, and sunny skies are expected. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s for afternoon high temperatures. Winds today will also be  on the gusty side. Winds will be sustained at 15 to 25 miles per hour. Gusts however will be as high as 45 to 50 miles per hour. For this reason, there is a Wind Advisory in place across the entire area from 1 PM this afternoon through 4 AM tomorrow morning. Gusty winds and unseasonably warm temperatures will not be the main story. 

Today is a day to remain weather aware. I am tracking a major storm system that will being widespread severe weather to the region. For this, there is a moderate, level 4 risk of severe weather across the entire region. While the term "moderate risk" may not initially come across as alarming, this is the second highest severe weather category that can be issued, and it is inpace for the entire area. 

As afternoon turns to evening, the severe weather potential will be on the increase. I expect storms to begin to move into our far western counties in southeastern Missouri around 7 to 8 PM. These storms will likely take on the form of a broken line of supercell thunderstorms and track from southwest to northeast. The should arrive in western, southern Illinois by 9 or 10 in the evening, and gradually move east, likely moving over the heart of southern Illinois sometime between 11pm and midnight. Storms look to exit the region at around 2 in the morning Saturday. 

With this line, all hazards will be possible, including the potential for damaging winds in excess of 70 miles per hour, tornadoes, some of which could be stronger (EF-2 or higher), and large hail over 2 inches. Additionally, some models have placed supercells out ahead of the main line. If this were to occur, it would likely impact southern Illinois between 9PM and 10PM. 

Given the timing of these storms, folks should remain weather aware and have multiple ways to receive alerts. There is also the chance that a few stronger storms could redevelop Saturday afternoon, mainly in western Kentucky. But, this will be highly dependent on how quickly storms exit the region Saturday morning. After Saturday, calmer conditions are expected.